significantly lowered; therefore, the surface water is more buoyant (Fig. a vigorous increase has preceded shifts towards interglacials(5). Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Mozambique Channel from January to March 2012 resulted in five landfalls that affected Madagascar and southeastern Africa. Paper presented at the ASPRS 2009, annual conference, Baltimore, Maryland, 9–13 March 2009. anticyclonic rotors in the subtropics of both hemispheres. But resultant devastation caused by the cyclones could impact the country’s elections as concerns are raised over whether the southern African nation can properly hold the ballot scheduled … Tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel: January–. The Humanitarian Response Plan in Mozambique currently only covers the situation in Northern Mozambique (Cabo Delgado), however, additional needs have been identified in Central Mozambique following tropical cyclone Eloise, which, according to the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD), impacted 441,686 people. Over the weekend, tropical cyclone Eloise made headway across the coast of Mozambique, causing high winds, heavy rains and severe flooding. Two areas of persistent low-level cyclonic circulation, MODIS visible satellite image and scatterometer wind max, CFS two-day forecast rainfall with peak value, ). Poverty, flood awareness, social capital and contigency planning emerged as the major drivers of flood preparedness. Mozambique is in the throes of Cyclone Eloise, which made landfall this past weekend. In situ, wind profiles derive from AMDAR aircraft and radiosonde observations at Maputo and Ft, The South African Weather Service radar network was used to estimate rainfall from, cumulative reflectivity. transit around Madagascar, huge 8- to 12-m ocean waves were generated (Fig. Divergent circulation and low-level moisture flux are used to document these modifications. Using a mixed approach, data came from a questionnaire survey involving 304 respondents who were selected through cluster sampling, and five focus group discussions that were purposively selected among the riparian communities. Up to 90,000 children in central Mozambique urgently need humanitarian assistance in wake of Cyclone Eloise, One year after Cyclone Idai, 2.5 million people in Mozambique remain in need of humanitarian assistance. Communities in Mozambique devastated by Cyclone Eloise. All rights reserved. A January–March 2012 time series of daily steering flow is given in Fig. Children wade through floodwaters near Tica Relocation Centre, 80 kilometres from Beira. Many rural communities of South Africa are living without adequate water supplies mainly due to historical lack of infrastructure and effective water reticulation systems. Can synoptic patterns influence the track and formation of tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel? Development and implementation of wind generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP. On the other hand, five TCs passed through the Mozambique, b) carried many TCs into the Mozambique Channel. The guidelines for such a task are based on the study of four educational factors: the students, the teachers, the teaching and learning strategies and methods, and the goals of education. Here, using satellite altimetry observations from 1993 to 2009, we show that the mesoscale variability of the Agulhas system, in particular in the Mozambique Channel and south of Madagascar, has intensified. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian, Seager R, Harnik N, Kushnir Y, Robinson W, Miller J (2003) Mechanisms of hemispherically symmetric, Singh P, Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C (2013) Impact of, a special emphasis on southwest Tropical Indian Ocean SST. J Hy-, Jury MR (1993) A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics, in the SW Indian Ocean. Title: 03.22.19 - Tropical Cyclone in Mozambique Map Created Date: Regression of the SOI onto ECMWF 200 hPa winds in January–March over the, 925 hPa wind streamlines and radiosonde wind at Ft Dauphin at 12 Z March 2, 2012, illustrating. Sources from OCHA Regional Office for Southern Eastern Africa have revealed that approximately 163,000 people have been affected by the storm, with 7,000 people being … Good agreement is found for sub-surface temperature in the SW Indian Ocean thermocline ridge, with rhythmic fluctuations of 2.5-5 yr period. Daily data from a mooring at 8°S, 55°E reveals intra-seasonal pulses at 15-50 days in Nov.-Mar. Decorrelation of temperature from a buoy area (8°S, 55°E) is found to vary by season; widespread in the first half of the year and almost zero in the second. Arabian Peninsula (25N). through lag correlation and cross-wavelet analysis. The mesoscale Unified Model and ECMWF model (not shown) forecast peak, amounts of 30–50 mm/day to the north of cMorph satellite observations of 100 mm/day, consistent with gauge totals, but spread too widely to the north. UNICEF is therefore urgently working with the Government and partners to make sure that the victims of the cyclone have access to safe drinking water to prevent the spread of disease. Meteorol Atmos Phys 67:37–69, Hurlburt HE et al (2009) High resolution global and basin-scale ocean analyses and forecasts. Dando and Irina in 2012 show behavior analogous to, Numerical weather forecast models had difficulty with storm tracks and convective, intensity in both TC Dando and Irina. Such a. phase of global Indo-Pacific tropical heat anomalies (Seager et al. Mean track errors grow from an initialization value of 172 km to over 500 km by day 3. Families queue during a food distribution at Tica Relocation Centre. Many of the operational models anticipated a northwest track, whereas Dando, moved more westward. This air–sea interaction process is unique and inherent in the Indian Ocean, and is shown to be independent of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Jury MR (2013) Variability in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean and influence on southern Africa climate. These caused confusing information to flow between state agencies and the public. UNICEF’s emergency teams deployed to Beira before Cyclone Eloise hit, allowing teams to quickly distribute prepositioned supplies. b), in some cases resulting in a weakening of the, c, d) indicates a pulsing of flood events on 18 January, 12 February, 3 March, and 31, www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/RSMCLaReunion_. Spatially distinct patterns of drought conditions were evident with harsh and dry conditions towards the east. A child fills a container with water in Beira. The recent 2015/16 event had devastating impacts on water levels, crop yields, livestock herds and rural livelihoods. Case studies were considered for two TCs, which brought flooding to southern Mozambique and adjacent areas: Dando 17 January and Irina 3 March. Teleconnections with ENSO are well es- tablished although more regional SST variability, especially in the Tropical and South- Western Indian Ocean seem to be strongly involved. J Clim 23:726–742, o, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. of TC track forecasts and consequent disaster mitigation efforts. The CFS model handled, the spiral rain band extending east along the coast, in comparison with satellite observa-, tions. On 23 January, Cyclone Eloise made landfall in Mozambique, bringing powerful winds, torrential rain and severe flooding. Here, the ability of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) state-of-the-art ensemble prediction model to predict Idai and 38 other tropical systems is assessed. Indian Ocean, this zonal circulation extended only to the Mozambique Channel. The findings of this study contribute to disaster risk reduction efforts in a region that is highly vulnerable to current and future climate-risks. In several areas, rain-fed agriculture is no longer tenable, with a direct impact on rural livelihoods. Regional wind responses to SW Indian Ocean heat anomalies contribute to a 15% change in seasonal rainfall and maize production in South Africa. Fig. The two tropical weather systems had anomalously long life times overland. were westerly to the west and easterly to the east of the Mozambique Channel (40E), creating convergence and uplift there. Understanding how expansion of the Mascarene High due to warming will alter trade winds and storm tracks and change the mean climate of Southern Africa is crucial. This contributed to the passage of TCs from the SW, Indian Ocean to the Mozambique Channel. Preprints 26th Conf Hurr, Tropical Meteorol, Miami, FL, Am Meteorol Soc 240–241, Fitchett JM, Grab SW (2014) A 66-year tropical cyclone record for south-east Africa: temporal trends in a. global context. In view of this imperative, the need to develop a Climate Change Education (CCE) plan that would be up to the challenge arose in the field of educational research. Blocking leads to landfall of tropical cyclones and slow propagation of cut-off lows resulting in severe weather and flooding over the subcontinent. Meteorol Atmos Phys 106:149–162, Chang-Seng D, Jury MR (2010b) Tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. …and families with basic hygiene kits, including soap, toothbrushes and toothpaste. The inclusion of forecasts of these variables as predictors in hybrid statistical–dynamical forecasting systems could potentially extend the time horizon for prediction and early detection of possible tropical storms and cyclones in the region. A thorough investigation into the dynamic processes involved in maintaining the tropical nature of the weather systems overland is recommended. doi: Gray WM (1998) The formation of tropical cyclones. Glob Planet Change 100:28–37, Tolman HL, Balasubramaniyan B, Burroughs LD, Chalikov DV, Chao YY, Chen HS, Gerald VM (2002). Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall on 23 January, 20km south of Beira city in Sofala province. Like the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean also shows interannual climate fluctuations, which are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole4, 5. Disastrous flooding resulted, hundreds of lives were lost and the damage to the infrastructure of the region severely hampered economic and agricultural development. S Afr Geogr J 75:53–59, Jury MR, McQueen C, Levey K (1994) SOI and QBO signals in the African region. Int J Climatol, Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Weather Forecast 19:789–805, Reason CJC, Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Ansell TJ (2000) ENSO and climate signals across the Indian Ocean, basin in the global context: part 1: interannual composite patterns. The 2012 season had a warm SW Indian Ocean (cf. A mixed methods approach with both quantitative and qualitative datasets was used. track of TC Irina conforms to an inertial oscillation (Wang et al. Neighbouring southern African nations are also being hit by torrential rainfall and flooding from Eloise, which weakened to a tropical storm after landfall. -from Authors, N. H. Saji, B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata. The storm pummelled the region with hurricane-force winds and heavy rains, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). Operational forecasters. Tropical storm Dando flooded the eastern periphery of South Africa, Swaziland, in 35 deaths in Madagascar, while TC Irina’s looping track resulted in 65 deaths in. On 29 January 1984, the tropical cyclone Domoina moved over Southern Africa from the Indian Ocean and caused the largest ever floods in parts of Southern Mozambique, Swaziland and South Africa. Weather forecasts underestimated rainfall from Dando and poorly resolved the looping track of Irina. A mixed methods research design was employed using qualitative methods such as content analysis whilst quantitative methods were dominated by time series analysis techniques and online interactive climate platforms such as the Climate Engine. They occur during all the above and often result in floods and snowfalls during the winter months, disrupting economic activities and causing extensive damage to infrastructure. Previous studies have found that the tracks and strengths of tropical storms and cyclones are difficult to predict more than a few days ahead. Some roads in central Mozambique are now impassable, hindering access to some villages and hampering efforts to bring much-needed assistance. On average, about two tropical storms or cyclones enter or form in the Mozambique Channel between the African mainland and Madagascar each year. Globally, subtropical circulation in the lower troposphere is characterized by anticyclones over the oceans. Madagascar. The January–March 2012 mean sea level air pressure distribution from ECMWF, at 25S, 40E. The associated moisture divergence region is always located ahead of its ageostrophic counterpart, with a local maximum eventually forming in the Mozambique Channel. An extension of this forecast horizon would be crucial for enabling authorities to take precautionary actions. A tropical cyclone that pummeled central Mozambique last weekend has impacted 250,000 people, a sharp increase over initial estimates, a UN official said Tuesday. K. Rae, P. Tharaga, and E. Becker. Satellite images captured by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show the extent of damages caused by tropical cyclone Eloisa that struck Mozambique's port city Beira on January 23, 2021. maximum wave height (m) January–March 2012. Lessons learnt from this study may be useful to other municipalities across South Africa that are grappling with challenges of water access and supply. Here, the models under-estimated rainfall associated, a) shows TC Irina close to Maputo on 3 Marc, on March 2, 2012, from Meteo-France Arpege model and from, c) consistent with the looping track of a, components. UNICEF tents outside a health centre in Beira that was partially destroyed by Cyclone Eloise. Further progress in the development of CCE in Mozambique would require future research to explore other educational factors with the aim of building a more accurate image of the educational reality of climate change in this country. The storm damaged and destroyed farmland, vital infrastructure and thousands of homes, dealing another devastating blow to families still trying to put their lives together after Cyclone Idai struck, less than two years ago. Our analysis reflects adequate upper level wind observations over land (cf. In the Dando case, northerly steering flow (, prevailed, while during Irina it alternated near zero. This feature is analogous to the thermocline see-saw of the Pacific and is, 1C and TC frequency triples on average. The trace predictions of the model are shown to be useful up to day 3. Indian Ocean. With a tropical cyclone comes loss, destruction and economic break downs. This modification of the teleconnection may be related to the Indian Ocean warming through a westward shift of the subsident branch of the anomalous zonal circulation during ENSO and its location over Africa. Tropical Storm Eloise is expected to turn into a Cyclone with expected winds between 140km/h and 160km/h. Part 1: inter-annual variability, and statistical prediction. Environmental impacts related to both the impact of and partial recovery by the affected populations to these prior storms (particularly Cyclone Idai) could be worsened by Eloise’s impact. The NW monsoon becomes active and moisture that would normally be exported to southern Africa is retained in the SW Indian Ocean. Children living in the affected areas, particularly those who have been displaced, could soon be at risk of contracting waterborne diseases such as cholera and diarrhoeal infections. Its N–S mountain chain causes a venturi. J Clim 12:1738–1746, Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE, AMIP-2 reanalysis. MAPUTO, May 20 2019 (IPS) - Mozambique, which was affected by an unprecedented two tropical cyclones over a matter of weeks, is still reeling from the impact a month after the latest disaster. Models anticipated greater, rainfall with TC Irina because landfall was expected, but the system looped offshore. High winds and flooding caused widespread damage on a long stretch of coastline in Sofala, Manica, Inhambane, Zambezia, and Gaza provinces.? Bull. compounded by interaction of the tropical steering flow with a passing mid-latitude trough. Positive SST anomalies in the SW Indian. Weather forecasts underestimated rainfall from Dando and poorly resolved the looping, track of Irina. steering flow from northeast over the Mozambique Channel. But TCs near Madagascar have a secondary effect to induce a subsiding circulation, www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/, ) offers a generalized climatology of TCs in the SW Indian Ocean.

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