The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a think tank based in Washington, D.C., in the United States. Explosives, incendiaries, and firearms remained common in both violent far-right and violent far-left attacks and plots, despite the increase in vehicle attacks linked to rallies and protests. On May 29, Air Force Staff Sergeant Steven Carrillo, a supporter of the “boogaloo boys” who wanted to ignite a civil war, used a firearm to kill protective security officer Patrick Underwood and critically wound a second officer in Oakland, California.1 On May 24, FBI agents arrested Muhammed Momtaz Al-Azhari in Tampa, Florida, for purchasing multiple firearms to conduct mass-casualty attacks in the Tampa area, including at beaches. These attackers frequently intended to send a broad message to American society. This section analyzes the data in three parts: number of attacks and plots, targets and tactics, and fatalities. This person would serve as the main contact with local JTTFs and Fusion Centers and be in charge of outreach with the local community. More sweeping domestic terrorism laws could be used ... executive vice president for policy at the Center for ... according to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Third, law enforcement and intelligence agencies need to adapt to the bottom-up aspect of domestic terrorism. Firearms are—by far—the most common weapon for fatal attacks by far-right, far-left, and Salafi-jihadist extremists. To answer these questions, this analysis compiles and analyzes an original CSIS data set of terrorist attacks in the United States between January 1, 1994, and May 8, 2020. Unlike with international terrorism on U.S. soil—which often requires top-down intelligence from the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, and foreign partners operating overseas—domestic terrorism is inherently bottom-up. Another is improving local intelligence. The analysis leads to several conclusions. Consequently, state and local law enforcement agencies have a particularly important role to play in identifying terrorism “left of boom.” Based on the example of some countries such as the United Kingdom, state and local police departments should have a single point of contact for terrorism intelligence wherever feasible. State and local law enforcement agencies have a particularly important role to play in collecting intelligence “left of boom”—before an attack—not just the Joint Terrorism Task Forces and Fusion Centers. In addition, the most common targets were individuals based on their ethnicity, race, or religion (such as African Americans, Latinos, Jews, and Muslims) for right-wing extremists; and government, military, and police targets for left-wing extremists and Salafi-jihadists. Data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) found that out of 10,600 demonstrations between May and August, nearly 95 percent were peaceful, while approximately 5 percent—fewer than 570—involved violence.”32, Fatalities: Despite the large number of terrorist incidents, there were only five fatalities caused by domestic terrorism in the first eight months of 2020. © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He was inspired by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and he remarked to a confidential human source from the FBI, “I want to die, you know, in a shootout with the kuffar [disbelievers] . There are several other caveats regarding this analysis. Domestic terrorism cases have increased overall in recent years, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. As terrorism scholar Walter Laqueur argues, “terrorist movements are usually small; some very small indeed, and while historians and sociologists can sometimes account for mass movements, the movements of small particles in politics as in physics often defy any explanation.”10, Religious terrorism includes violence in support of a faith-based belief system, such as Islam, Judaism, Christianity, or Hinduism. In addition to guns, other types of weapons—such as vehicles, melee devices, incendiary devices for arson attacks, and the components for homemade explosives—are also widely available.Second, based on the target selection of domestic terrorists, there are some steps that organizations can take to reduce the likelihood of an attack, mitigate the consequences if an attack occurs, or even deter an attack. Updated: 9/89. First, right-wing terrorism refers to the use or threat of violence by sub-national or non-state entities whose goals may include racial or ethnic supremacy; opposition to government authority; anger at women, including from the involuntary celibate (or “incel”) movement; and outrage against certain policies, such as abortion.8 Second, left-wing terrorism involves the use or threat of violence by sub-national or non-state entities that oppose capitalism, imperialism, and colonialism; advocate black nationalism; pursue environmental or animal rights issues; espouse pro-communist or pro-socialist beliefs; or support a decentralized social and political system such as anarchism.9 Third, religious terrorism includes violence in support of a faith-based belief system, such as Islam, Judaism, Christianity, and Hinduism. It could increase the competence and professionalism of these organizations in numerous areas, such as planning attacks, recruiting, training, improving operational security, and fundraising. In October 2020, the FBI arrested Adam Fox, Barry Croft, and several other accomplices in a plot to kidnap and potentially execute Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. For example, on May 30 Brandon McCormick threatened Black Lives Matter protesters in Salt Lake City, Utah, with a knife and a loaded compound bow while shouting racial slurs.25 As in previous years, violent far-right extremists frequently targeted government, military, and police targets (18 percent of incidents) and private individuals based on race, gender, and other factors (18 percent of incidents). In April 2019, John T. Earnest entered the Chabad of Poway synagogue in Poway, California, with a Smith & Wesson Model M&P 15 Sport II semi-automatic rifle, killing one person and wounding three others.16 In October 2018, Robert Bowers entered the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and opened fire during a service, killing 11 people and wounding 6 others, including 4 police officers.17 The third most common type of right-wing target between 2015 and 2020 included government, military, and police locations, which comprised 8 percent of right-wing attacks. There appears to be an assumption by some extremists that others are prepared to use force, which heightens the possibility of violence. The New America Foundation, a liberal thinktank that maintains a database of fatal domestic terrorism incidents since 9/11, agreed with CSIS that the Portland shooting should be … Unlike right-wing and left-wing terrorists, religious terrorists have not overwhelmingly used one type of weapon. What are the policy implications? The Washington Post cites a report from the highly woke Center for Strategic and International Studies, which recorded 73 “far-right” violent incidents with two resulting deaths in 2020, compared with 25 leftist incidents with one resulting death. These incidents included both attacks and plots. No direct sponsorship contributed to this brief. This brief is made possible by general support to CSIS. These types of extremists used explosives and incendiaries in the majority of attacks, followed by firearms. A nonpartisan data analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that U.S. domestic terrorism incidents skyrocketed in the last 25 years, driven by growing right-wing extremist attacks which hit an all-time record of 73 in 2020. Some of these incidents were plots foiled by the FBI or other law enforcement agencies, which suggested that law enforcement agencies were effective in preventing several major attacks. But domestic terrorism is inherently bottom-up. Also, thanks to David Brannan and Paul Smith for their comments. State and local law enforcement agencies often rely on at least some intelligence collected by the CIA, NSA, and U.S. partners, which is then passed down to local Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) for threats in the U.S. homeland. What are the major tactics and targets used by domestic terrorists, and how have they evolved over time? While these incidents are important to analyze—particularly in light of the events in 2020 following the death of George Floyd—most are not terrorism. On May 29, Steven Carrillo shot and killed Pat Underwood, a protective security officer, and wounded his partner in Oakland, California.38 Carrillo also killed a Santa Cruz County Sherriff’s Deputy in Ben Lomond, California, with an assault rifle on June 6, 2020.39. While the primary targets (58 percent) of anarchists and anti-fascists were police, government, and military personnel and institutions, 42 percent of their attacks and plots in 2020 also targeted demonstrators. These cases involved a wide range of weapons (such as firearms and homemade bombs) and targets (such as police officers, beaches, a religious-affiliated institution, and a U.S. government facility). For example, the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness projected that “domestic extremists—primarily anarchist, anti-government, and racially motivated—will continue to manipulate national incidents” and remain a threat at least through 2021.40 Looking toward the future, there are several issues worth monitoring. Rising political polarization, growing economic challenges, the persistence of Covid-19, and growing concerns about immigration could lead to a rise in domestic terrorism. For example, Gavin Long open fired on police in July 2016, killing three and injuring three others. Far-left extremists will likely continue to use social media platforms—such as Reddit, Facebook, and Twitter—to release propaganda and instigate violence against political opponents, law enforcement, military, and the government.47 Many adopted slogans, such as ACAB (“all cops are bastards”), that were used in memes as part of their propaganda campaigns. In addition, the primary targets for right-wing extremists included individuals based on ethnicity, race, or religion (such as African Americans, Latinos, Jews, and Muslims). White supremacists and other like-minded extremists conducted two-thirds of the terrorist plots and attacks in the United States in 2020, according to new CSIS data. Finally, while there is often a desire among government officials and academics to focus on terrorist groups and organizations, the terrorism landscape in the United States remains highly decentralized. First, based on the tactics of domestic terrorists, enacting stricter legislation to ban some types of guns (such as assault rifles) and further strengthening background checks could help prevent some would-be terrorists from getting access to weapons. Hate crimes and hate speech are obviously concerning and a threat to society, but this analysis concentrates only on terrorism and the use—or threat—of violence to achieve political objectives. Instead, terrorism is orchestrated by a small minority of extremists. Grace Hwang is a research assistant with the Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. This marked a significant increase from 2015 to 2019, during which a vehicle was used in only one violent far-right attack. There has been growing concern about the threat of domestic terrorism, with extremists motivated by political, racial, ethnic, economic, health, and other grievances. As shown in Figure 2, explosives and incendiaries were the primary weapons in 50 percent of all right-wing attacks from 1994 to 2020. This analysis defines terrorism as the deliberate use—or threat—of violence by non-state actors in order to achieve political goals and create a broad psychological impact.6 Violence and the threat of violence are important components of terrorism. Download the Brief The Issue With a rise in domestic terrorism, it is increasingly important to analyze trends in terrorist tactics and targets. Far-right tactics and weapons have evolved from 1994 to 2020. The third explores future developments, including the potential for violence after the 2020 presidential election. Examples included the destruction of property—such as construction equipment—by groups like the Animal Liberation Front and Earth Liberation Front. The decentralized nature of terrorism is particularly noteworthy regarding the use of violence, which CSIS data suggests is often planned and orchestrated by a single individual or small network. With a rise in domestic terrorism, it is increasingly important to analyze trends in terrorist tactics and targets. Ray S. Cline was a cofounder. There is an overlap between terrorism and hate crimes since some hate crimes include the use or threat of violence.12 But hate crimes can also include non-violent incidents such as graffiti and verbal abuse. Despite this diversity of weapon choice, firearms were most likely to result in fatalities. Salafi-jihadists inspired by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State accounted for most religious attacks in the data set. Domestic terrorism incidents have ... according to a Washington Post analysis of data compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. These trends were not a commentary on the protests themselves, but rather on the ability of extremists to adapt to opportunities and the proximity of armed individuals in cities with different political and ideological motivations. Based on our data, the targets are likely to be demonstrators, politicians, or individuals based on their race, ethnicity, or religion—such as African Americans, Latinos, Muslims, and Jews. The authors give special thanks to James Suber and Grace Hwang for their research assistance and helpful comments, including their involvement in building the terrorism data set. Explosives and incendiaries were by far the most common weapon used by left-wing terrorists. To evaluate the terrorism threat in the United States, CSIS compiled a data set of 61 incidents that occurred in the country between January 1 and August 31, 2020. Changing America reports: Domestic terrorist plots and attacks in the United States have skyrocketed to the highest rates recorded in a quarter-century, according to an analysis by The Washington Post and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Yet only 5 of the 61 incidents (8 percent) recorded between January and August 2020 resulted in fatalities, excluding the perpetrator. It is also possible that the organizational structure of extremism could evolve from today’s decentralized landscape to include more hierarchically structured groups. Despite these findings, this violence needs to be understood in historical context. Digital platforms will likely continue to be a major battlefield. The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that 67% of the ‘terrorist plots and attacks’ against the United States in 2020 were planned by far-right extremist and white nationalist groups. For an overview of the methodology used in compiling the data set, please see here. Members of this network, which had ties to militias in Michigan and other states, referred to Governor Whitmer as a “tyrant” and claimed that she had “uncontrolled power right now.”1 They also discussed kidnapping Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, in part because of his lockdown orders to slow the spread of Covid-19.2. Still, violence levels in the United States could rise over the next year depending on political polarization, the persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic (and reactions to policy decisions to mitigate its spread), worsening economic conditions, growing concerns about immigration (whether real or perceived), racial injustice, or other factors. As with right-wing extremists, firearms accounted for the majority of fatal left-wing attacks. Firearms were used in nine of these attacks (82 percent), compared to explosives and incendiaries, which were used in the other two (18 percent). The Post analysis, based on data compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, found that in 2020, there were 73 incidents carried out by extremists on the far … FOR TERRORISM AND FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, 2019 WASHINGTON, DC Thank you, John, for inviting me here as part of today’s important discussion about the impact of sanctions. Despite these findings, however, the number of fatalities from domestic terrorism is relatively low compared to previous years. Crusius claimed he was acting in response to a “Hispanic invasion of Texas” and warned that white people were being replaced by foreigners.15 The second-highest percentage of targets (32 percent) were religious institutions. As one study concluded, Louis Beam’s concept of “leaderless resistance” has been “a near total failure as a method of fomenting widespread armed resistance against the U.S. government.”49 Most effective militant organizations have established centralized organizational structures to enable their leaders to control how violence is orchestrated and how finances are secured and managed.50, In the United States, there are a handful of groups—such as The Base, the Atomwaffen Division (including rebranded versions such as the National Socialist Order), and the Feuerkrieg Division—with some leadership structure and command-and-control arrangements. Due to the relatively low levels of ethnonationalist terrorism in the United States—no such incidents occurred in 2020—this brief does not address ethnonationalist terrorism. Between 1994 and 2020, the most frequent targets of Salafi-jihadists included: government, military, and police facilities and personnel (41 percent); private individuals or property (22 percent); businesses (12 percent); and transportation and infrastructure (12 percent). Given that a large portion of attacks were conducted with vehicles or firearms, there was a high potential for lethality—but an apparent lack of will. Fourth, the U.S. government, its partners overseas, and the private sector need to continue to aggressively target individuals and groups that espouse violence on digital platforms. A target includes the object of the attack, such as transportation locations, religious institutions, government personnel, or businesses. Categories:Education, Political. International Center for Terrorism Studies (ICTS) ICTS Reports . First, there are various scenarios for a continuation—and even a rise—of violence after the November 2020 elections, which could persist into 2021 and beyond. Third, far-left and far-right violence was deeply intertwined—creating a classic “security dilemma.”6 Since it is difficult to distinguish between offensive and defensive weapons, armed individuals from various sides reacted to each other during protests and riots, and each side’s efforts to protect itself and acquire weapons generally threatened others. To help fill this gap, this analysis provides new data on the domestic terrorist threat in the United States. But it did not provide 2020 data. Between 2015 and 2020, the proportion of melee attacks increased and matched firearms as the most commonly used weapon type at 32 percent. Though explosives and incendiaries were still most common, they were used in only 38 percent of attacks during this period. ... senior pastor at … Seth Jones talked about the Center for Strategic and International Studies' new report on domestic terrorism activity in U.S, "The Military, Police, and the Rise of Terrorism in the United States." Based on the data, this analysis has several findings, which are discussed at greater length later in this assessment. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Center for Nonproliferation Studies "The world's largest non-governmental organization devoted to … Another organization that is helping propel the “rise of domestic terror” narrative is the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), an organization with deep ties to the intelligence community and Western Military Industrial Complex. The first defines terrorism and differentiates this report’s focus on terrorism from other phenomena, such as hate crimes and riots. Unlike right-wing or left-wing terrorists, Salafi-jihadists indiscriminately targeted private individuals and businesses. The establishment of the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT) and the appointment of Nicholas Rasmussen, former head of the National Counterterrorism Center, as its first full-time executive director is a welcome step in countering terrorist exploitation of digital platforms. Actors of both orientations targeted demonstrators in a large percentage of their attacks.24 Demonstrators were the primary targets of far-right terrorists—in 50 percent of attacks and plots—including attacks from white supremacists and others who opposed the Black Lives Matter movement. Six people were injured, including House Majority Whip Steve Scalise and Representative Roger Williams, before police shot and killed Hodgkinson.25 As shown in Figure 5, 81 percent of all left-wing attacks between 1994 and 2019 involved explosives and incendiaries.26 For instance, in December 2018, Elizabeth Lecron purchased black powder and screws in an attempt to bomb a pipeline she believed was polluting a local river.27, The second most common weapons were melee weapons such as knives, hatchets, and hammers, which accounted for 7 percent of attacks. For example, in June 2017, James Hodgkinson opened fire on a congressional Republican baseball practice. By limiting Islamic terrorism only to cases with direct ties to specific … Countering international terrorism is often a top-down process. One is sustained targeting of extremist ideologies that espouse violence on social media platforms. Of the four attacks coded as “other,” all were committed by adherents of the Boogaloo movement. Between 2015 and 2020, the largest percentage of targets (42 percent) were against private individuals—such as African Americans and Latinos—and locations associated with them. “The data should serve as a cautionary tale,” the centre said, adding, “While the numbers are relatively low, they are growing – and the military and law enforcement agencies need to take preventive action now.” The database includes 980 incidents of “domestic terror” on US soil since that year through the end of January 2021. Many are inspired by the concept of “leaderless resistance,” which rejects a centralized, hierarchical organization in favor of decentralized networks or individual activity.19 As Kathleen Belew argues in her study of the white power movement in the United States, the aim of leaderless resistance is “to prevent the infiltration of groups, and the prosecution of organizations and individuals, by formally dissociating activists from each other and by eliminating official orders.”20 In addition to their decentralized structures, the violent far-right and far-left in the United States include a wide range of ideologies. The second section analyzes the targets and tactics of left-wing terrorists. As a Department of Homeland Security assessment concluded, “Attacks of this nature require minimal capability, but can have a devastating impact in crowded places with low levels of visible security.”28 While a concerning development, these vehicle attacks were not as lethal as those in such cities as Nice, France in July 2016, which killed 86 people; Barcelona in August 2017, which killed 16 people; or New York City in October 2017, which killed 8 people. This analysis divides terrorism into several categories: religious, ethnonationalist, violent-far-right, violent-far-left, and other (which includes terrorism that does not fit neatly into any of the other categories).9 Terms such as far-right and far-left terrorism do not correspond to mainstream political parties in the United States, such as the Republican and Democratic parties, which eschew terrorism. Acronym/Code: CSIS. National news coverage about domestic terrorism this past year almost always centered on white supremacist and right-wing extremist groups. How do tactics and targets differ by far-right, far-left, and Salafi-jihadist extremists? The remainder of attacks involved either vehicles (10 percent) or threats or hoaxes (8 percent). The most frequent weapons used by far-right, far-left, and Salafi-jihadist individuals in lethal attacks were firearms, which are widely available in the United States. “Domestic violent extremism poses the most lethal, persistent terrorism-related threat to our homeland today," a DHS spokesperson said in response to a request for comment. CSIS Briefs are produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. As shown in Figure 6, terrorists used explosives and incendiaries and firearms in 31 percent of the 49 religious attacks between 1994 and 2020.32 Melee weapons, particularly knives or other sharp objects, were the second most frequently used weapon, accounting for 20 percent of attacks overall. For an overview of the methodology used in compiling the data set, please see here. Second, there was a rise in the number of anarchist, anti-fascist, and other like-minded attacks and plots in 2020 compared to previous years, which comprised 20 percent of terrorist incidents (an increase from 8 percent in 2019). There were also no mass-casualty terrorist attacks, a stark contrast from such incidents as the April 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, which killed 168 people; the September 2001 attacks, which killed nearly 3,000 people; and the June 2016 Orlando attack, which killed 49 people. They have used various combinations of Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Gab, Reddit, 4Chan, 8kun (formerly 8Chan), Endchan, Telegram, Vkontakte, MeWe, Discord, Wire, Twitch, and other online communication platforms. “The problem of domestic terrorism has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now and it’s not going away anytime soon.” Wray said that the number of domestic terrorism investigations has increased from around 1,000 when he became director in 2017 to roughly 1,400 at the end of last year, to about 2,000 already in 2021. For instance, some of the looting following the death of George Floyd was perpetrated by apolitical criminals.18 Nevertheless, coding incidents as terrorism is challenging in some cases, which is addressed in the methodology that accompanies this analysis. Consequently, this analysis asks several questions. During the 1990s, the highest percentage of right-wing attacks focused on abortion-related targets. Contact H. Andrew Schwartz Chief Communications Officer Tel: 202.775.3242, Contact Caleb Diamond Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate Tel: 202.775.3173. Center for Strategic and International Studies. According to the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol), numerous left-wing extremists are motivated by anarchist views, along with “anti-fascism, anti-racism, and perceived state repression.”21. This situation is a classic security dilemma.41 Each side’s efforts to increase its own security and acquire weapons inadvertently threaten the other side. In focusing on terrorism, this report does not cover the broader categories of hate speech or hate crimes. I want to take at least 50 [lives].”2 On April 15, FBI agents arrested John Michael Rathbun in East Longmeadow, Massachusetts, after he allegedly placed an improvised explosive device outside the entrance of Ruth’s House, a predominantly Jewish assisted-living residence.3 In July 2019, Willem Van Spronsen, a self-proclaimed anarchist, attacked a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle and attempted to ignite a 500-gallon propane tank.4. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). There is a link to the methodology at the end of this analysis. Melee weapons—primarily knives—were the main weapon in 20 percent of fatal right-wing attacks since 2015. The broad scope of domestic terrorism also makes it difficult to predict where future incidents will occur. This report focuses on terrorism—not other issues, such as hate crimes, protests, riots, or broader civil unrest. Senior Vice President; Harold Brown Chair; and Director, International Security Program, Program Manager and Research Associate, Transnational Threats Project, Research Assistant, Burke Chair in Strategy, Research Assistant, Transnational Threats Project, Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts, Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations, Capitol riot fuels debate over domestic terror laws, US Homeland Security Chief Vows Broad Response to Pipeline Cyberattack, Afghans shaken amid horror of bombings, politician warns there could be more, Project Overmatch: A Conversation with RADM Douglas Small, USN, Pentagon preparing for Taliban attacks during US withdrawal, 'White supremacy is terrorism': Biden urges vigilance against home-grown violence after Jan. 6 attack, The UK Integrated Defense Review: A Conversation with General Sir Nick Carter, Islamic State degraded in Afghanistan but still poses threat.

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